Research on Nuclear-Weapon Stockpile Changes, Test Activities, and the Speed of Transition to Nuclear-Weapon Possession Based on TOPSIS

Yu Gao

doi:10.54254/2753-8818/2026.35883

Abstract

Nuclear-weapon stockpile changes, nuclear-test activities, and national nuclear-policy status jointly record the key process through which nuclear capabilities are formed and evolve. Based on historical country-year data, this study screens countries that have had positive stockpile values in their historical stockpile series and constructs an indicator system for assessing research activity and transition speed. To avoid comparison bias caused by mixing different time periods, the period from 1981 to 1990 is selected as a unified ten-year observation window. Stockpile change, average stockpile growth rate, and the number of nuclear tests are extracted, and the TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the level of nuclear-weapon research activity across countries. In addition, a transition-speed evaluation matrix for nuclear-weapon possession is established from three dimensions: time span, short-term average stockpile growth rate, and short-term stockpile increase. The results show that, within the 1981-1990 window, Russia had relatively high values for both stockpile change and nuclear-test frequency, obtained the highest TOPSIS composite score, and can therefore be regarded as the most active country in nuclear-weapon research during this period. In the evaluation of the transition from "not considering nuclear weapons" to "possessing nuclear weapons", the United States ranked first because of its shortest time span and rapid early stockpile expansion. The study indicates that multi-indicator evaluation can effectively reduce the one-sidedness of relying on a single stockpile or test indicator and provides a reproducible quantitative framework for the structured analysis of historical nuclear-weapon data.

Keywords: nuclear-weapon stockpile , nuclear test , TOPSIS , data preprocessing , transition speed

Article Information

Received: 2 July 2026

Published: 4 August 2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/2026.35883

Article Type: Research Article

Cite this article

Gao,Y. (2026). Research on Nuclear-Weapon Stockpile Changes, Test Activities, and the Speed of Transition to Nuclear-Weapon Possession Based on TOPSIS. Theoretical and Natural Science,183,185-195.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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About this Volume

Volume Title: TNS Vol.183

Part of Series: Theoretical and Natural Science

ISSN: 2753-8818 (Print) / 2753-8826 (Online)

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